Review of poker hand probability calculator::How to Work Out a Bet? - What's Your Question?
If you have a pocket pair of either sixes or kings and the only other player to call has pocket Aces, which pocket pair are you better off having based on probability percentages of winning?
Most people would intuitively say pocket kings are better.
Intuition is incorrect in this case.
This is both a very hard question and a very easy one.
It is an easy question because your odds are very poor with either pair.
It is a difficult question because it is 2% worse if you have a pair of kings than a pair of sixes against the pocket aces. Before I go into the analysis of this hand let me first say it is much worse to have pocket kings against pocket aces because you are much more likely to make a large call or bet, even all in bet, with kings than sixes, which will usually be folded against a large bet or raise.
Theoretically these two hands can fall at endgame with two head up players left.
In this case even the pocket sixes may make an all in bet since any pair heads up is generally a winner. If you have two kings you must draw a third king without the aces drawing a third ace in order to win.
If a four flush is unfolded on the board the aces will beat both sixes and kings if the hold cards of both players match the suit of the four flush.
If neither player matches the 4 flush the point is moot, with the improbable exception that a 5 flush on board will unfold to tie the game.
Otherwise the single player matching the 4 flush will win. The reason it is 2% better to have sixes rather than kings has to do with the possibility of a straight draw.
The king pair limits the odds of the aces drawing a straight since a king fall for an ace high straight is diminished by 50%.
Likewise, the kings draw for an open ended straight is diminished by 25% since two aces are already out of play for that hand. In real time play the odds of any pocket pair winning against aces is small before the flop, about 1 in 5.
The 2% advantage due to a straight draw is small and more of an intellectual exercise than a real time consideration.
You are more likely to make money on this tidbit of information as a side bet rather than a difference of tactical play. If you would like to find the odds of any two to six combinations of hands in Texas Hold'em poker, feel free to use the free poker odds calculator at the World Poker Tour home page at worldpokertour.com.
They have a whole section called "The Academy" dedicated to increasing your poker playing skills.
Please also feel free to read all my other poker articles on Associated Content.
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Review of probability poker hands::Description of Standard Deck of 52 Cards - Norton Safe Search
Review of probability poker hands::Description of Standard Deck of 52 Cards - Norton Safe Search
Poker, especially big bet games like no-limit Texas hold'em and pot-limit Omaha hold'em, have a very large element of chance in the short run.
Over time, skill will obviously win out, but while you're waiting on "the long run", you need to take measures to protect yourself from the inevitable swings that come along with playing a lot of poker.
Here we're going to break down a three-pronged approach to managing your poker bankroll which is based on giving you the protection you need from the chance element of the game.
First you need to realize a truth about the game that is not what most people want to hear: your edge per hour is relatively small compared to what your poker bankroll should be.
If you're playing $1/2 no-limit Texas hold'em in a casino setting playing 10-hour sessions, then you may only see 400-500 hands in a session.
Even if you're winning eight big blinds per hundred hands, that's only an average of winning $64-80 per session.
Meanwhile, your bankroll should be well over $4000 to even sit in the game to begin with, and even more than that if you're relying on poker as your main income. After you're comfortable with the idea of having a lot of money backing your play, you need to realize that you're going to need even more money behind if you are playing in a game that's high-variance.
The wilder the players, the more streets of betting, and the higher the cap on the betting per street, the larger the bankroll you absolutely must have.
All three of these factors create more of a statistical term called variance.
An increase in variance means a direct increase in your chance of going broke in a given game with a given bankroll. Finally after you understand how deep a bankroll needs to be and after you understand the role of variance, you need to realize that there is a major psychological component to the size of your bankroll.
When you're on a really bad streak of cards (which will happen from time to time), you will have a much harder time recovering and playing your best if the swing takes out 20% of your bankroll than if it takes out only 5% of your bankroll.
The comfort of having a large number of bets (or buy-ins if you're playing no-limit/pot-limit games) left before you have to move down or go broke cannot be overemphasized. The intelligent gambler does not only find a game that he has an edge in.
He (or she) also evaluates the role of luck in the game and the probability that they will go broke based on the chance aspect of the game.
This management of your gambling bankroll is crucial to longevity in the game.
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