Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Review of famous poker hands::Who Is the Best Poker Player in the World







Review of famous poker hands::Who Is the Best Poker Player in the World








Day               one               of               China's               General               Secretary               Hu               Jintao               state               visit               to               the               United               states               today.

Listening               as               painfully               dry               and               frustrating               as               it               was               at               times               it               really               gave               me               the               impression               that               we               are               playing               Chinese               checkers               when               we               should               be               playing               poker.

I               studied               Asian               history,               Lived               in               Japan,               been               to               most               of               the               major               Chinese               cities,               and               have               done               business               for               years               with               Chinese               companies               (both               state               owned               and               private)               before               turning               my               attention               to               the               markets               full               time.

What               so               many               doesn't               understand               is               that               China               has               an               axe               to               grind               (and               maybe               rightfully               so)               for               all               the               transgressions               that               have               happened               by               so               many               western               countries.

Granted               England               ranks               most               likely               on               the               top               of               the               list               but               United               States               doesn't               have               clean               hands               either.

At               one               time               China               was               the               greatest               country               in               terms               of               total               GDP               and               if               including               India               the               GDP               comprised               of               over               half               the               total               worlds               GDP.

Moving               forward               after               more               than               one               war               was               fought               to               maintain               the               sale               of               drugs               (think               Opium               /               British               East               India               Company               in               the               mid               1800s).

This               along               with               civil               wars,               Japanese               invasion               in               the               1930s               that               didn't               end               until               the               end               of               world               war               II               and               we               have               a               China               that               went               from               a               position               of               high               status               to               a               country               that               has               been               beaten               up               and               seriously               embarrassed.

For               a               culture               that               prides               itself               like               most               with               a               feeling               of               self               respect               (think               saving               face)               it               is               understandable               that               they               want               to               move               along               and               take               what               they               feel               is               their               rightful               place               as               the               number               one               world               economy               and               power.


               I               feel               that               anything               that               gets               in               the               way               of               that               goal               is               going               to               be               very               quickly               dismissed               as               getting               in               the               way               of               the               end               game               and               not               worthy               of               consideration.

This               is               what               so               many               business               leaders               in               the               west               including               political               leaders               in               Washington               fail               to               understand.
               A               prime               example               is               when               Microsoft               said               they               would               be               proactive               in               disabling               counterfeit               software               products               and               the               response               from               China               was               that               they               would               boycott               and               attempt               to               punish               the               audacity               of               Microsoft               for               actually               wanting               to               protect               their               intellectual               property               from               outright               wide               scale               theft.

I               feel               this               was               a               mistake               on               as               large               of               scale               as               possible.

What               was               missed               is               that               China               is               working               hard               to               find               a               replacement               for               the               Microsoft               product               and               replace               it               with               a               Chinese               product               to               sell               within               China               and               undoubtedly               to               the               world               as               well.

Better               to               make               a               stand               while               you               are               in               a               position               of               power               and               influence               than               to               try               to               appease               a               thief               to               not               steal               from               you               any               more.

As               we               heard               many               times               today               China               continuously               uses               the               term               "respect"               and               yet               laughs               in               our               face               as               they               show               us               none.

At               least               no               more               than               absolutely               necessary               in               keeping               the               United               States               from               giving               China               a               major               and               real               backlash.

Walking               the               streets               in               Shanghai               one               can               find               stores               that               sell               DVDs               in               major               malls               and               shops               and               the               majority               of               the               product               that               is               available               that               I               witnessed               was               counterfeit.

I               found               it               very               difficult               to               impossible               to               find               anything               that               was               genuine.

How               many               jobs               /               export               money               is               lost               due               to               the               sales               that               are               lost               from               Hollywood               losing               what               appears               to               be               most               of               the               Chinese               market               from               competitors               that               simply               steal               the               product               and               resell               it?

I               am               pretty               sure               that               California               could               use               the               extra               revenue.

It               goes               on               and               on               in               ways               that               many               may               not               understand.

Rolex               is               another               easy               one               to               understand               but               how               about               fake               drugs,               fake               aerospace               products,               fake               musical               instruments               (I               have               been               to               a               factory               in               China               that               produces               Fender               guitars               and               Fender               does               NOT               have               a               factory               in               China),               fake               jeans,               T-shits,               and               just               about               every               other               value               added               product               made               in               the               US.

I               have               talked               to               Chinese               businesses               that               actually               do               not               want               to               sell               US               products               because               the               counterfeit               problem               is               so               bad               that               they               can               not               compete               against               it               and               the               customers               do               not               believe               the               good               are               the               real               thing.

How               bad               is               that?

Products               that               are               not               sold               because               no               one               believes               they               are               real????

I               use               Shanghai               as               my               example               because               this               is               the               same               city               that               China               uses               as               their               example               of               how               they               are               making               progress               in               stopping               illegal               goods               from               being               sold.

Yes               in               all               fairness               their               have               been               limited               examples               of               people               being               arrested               and               sentenced               to               prison               but               I               equate               that               to               using               a               table               spoon               to               drain               a               bathtub.
               I               could               make               points               about               how               the               Chinese               manipulate               the               Yuan               against               the               dollar               to               keep               it               artificially               low               but               I               think               that               is               not               a               problem.

I               know               many               will               disagree               but               in               my               opinion               a               strong               dollar               raises               the               standard               of               living               for               the               U.S.

Also               and               very               important               I               feel               is               that               in               order               to               maintain               the               current               exchange               rate               China               is               buying               our               debt               allowing               us               to               keep               the               housing               market               from               totally               imploding               along               with               perhaps               the               rest               of               the               economy               (one               may               be               able               to               argue               that               the               economy               would               be               doing               better               in               the               long               run               otherwise               and               I               would               agree               I               do               not               care               for               the               debt               level               we               find               the               U.S.

at).
               Lastly               a               lot               of               time               is               spent               with               the               human               rights               issues.

Lets               face               it,               China               gives               little               importance               to               human               rights.

But               as               I               suggested               this               is               because               that               perceived               rightly               or               wrongly               to               be               getting               in               the               way               of               the               end               game               of               being               seated               at               the               head               of               the               table.

I               also               feel               that               the               human               rights               /               censorship               hurts               China               more               than               it               hurts               us.

China               will               loosen               up               censorship               and               at               some               point               tear               down               the               "Great               Firewall               of               China"               but               not               one               minute               before               they               want               to.

We               can               talk               until               we               are               blue               in               the               face               and               they               will               simply               nod,               be               polite,               and               tell               us               they               will               work               harder               in               the               future               towards               it.

Like               it               or               not               that               is               the               end               of               that               story.
               What               should               the               United               States               do               then?

Are               we               helpless               to               get               anything               done?

No               but               we               must               act               like               we               actually               are               in               control               of               our               own               fate.

I               would               suggest               a               5-15%               across               the               board               increase               in               import               duties               (we               actually               allow               many               products               in               with               ZERO               import               duty               from               China               and               as               a               former               importer               I               know               from               experience).

Yes               China               could               file               complaints               to               the               WTO.

China               could               also               restrict               imports               of               our               products               but               we               import               more               than               they               do               so               they               have               more               to               lose.

In               the               end               a               trade               war               has               proven               more               than               once               to               only               leave               a               wake               of               losers               and               no               winners               long               term               and               it               is               that               thinking               and               game               theory               that               China               is               betting               on               to               continue               what               they               are               doing.

But               this               view               while               maybe               correct               in               the               short               term               and               on               a               total               GDP               persepective               right               now               fails               to               calculate               what               an               absence               of               action               will               do.

The               United               States               was               once               faced               with               a               export               restriction               of               VHS               cases               for               movies               over               an               issue               back               in               the               1990s.

Hollywood               cried               and               we               were               left               without               another               source               for               the               low               cost               product.

Now               we               face               possible               short               term               shortages               on               rare               earth               products               /               metals.

What               will               it               be               next               week               /               month               /               year?

What               happens               when               the               dependence               shifts               from               China               needing               the               United               States               more               to               one               where               the               United               States               needs               China               more?

You               can               count               on               China               nodding               a               little               bit               less               and               offering               a               little               bit               less               and               demanding               a               lot               more.

Things               like               Taiwan               are               in               the               sights               and               within               a               few               years               at               our               current               trend               we               will               not               have               a               say               because               we               will               be               to               vulnerable               to               a               reaction               by               China               if               we               do               anything               more               than               lip               service               (We               may               already               be               there               now).
               We               need               to               put               business               leaders               of               the               caliber               of               Donald               Trump,               Jack               Welch               and               others               who               are               willing               to               take               on               some               short               term               pain               to               get               a               brighter               tomorrow.

I               highly               doubt               President               Obama               will               do               anything               at               this               time               that               could               possibly               upset               the               apple               cart               and               risk               his               chances               for               re-election.

The               Chinese               know               this               and               will               play               that               to               their               advantage.

The               United               States               must               stop               thinking               in               terms               of               today               and               start               looking               at               tomorrow               and               beyond.

Perhaps               a               good               start               is               to               understand               what               the               Chinese               are               doing,               how               they               are               doing               it,               and               why.

A               good               place               to               start               for               our               leaders               would               be               a               reading               of               the               famous               Sun               Tsu               "The               Art               of               War".






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